bande passante: enjeux et gestion de la pénurie

Après l’explosion de la bulle internet, la bande passante a été une des valeurs qui a le plus perdu. Finies les autoroutes de l’information; le haut débit pour tous (réseaux & usages), ça sera pour plus tard. Aucun intérêt pour les liaisons Gigabits envisagées un temps, si ce n’est dans une optique de prouesse technologique ou de recherche scientifique.

Pourtant, depuis plusieurs mois, on voit déferler des usages réellement haut débit, qu’embrassent des millions d’internautes: explosion de la vidéo sur le web (YouTube ou Dailymotion), démarrage commercial pour la VoD, banalisation de la VoIP, et gonflement continu des échanges P2P (BitTorrent notamment). Tout ceci entraîne une augmentation et une densification de l’usage de bande passante par utilisateur. Augmentation car les débits réellement consommés lors de ces nouveaux usages sont plus élevés, et densification car les internautes (ou plutôt leurs machines) restent connectés de plus en plus longtemps.

Consommation de bande passante accrue: adaptation des opérateurs

Dès lors que le trafic mondial augmente, les capacités réseaux de tous les opérateurs sont sollicitées de façon croissante. La consommation de données de chaque internaute se rapproche de la bande passante théorique qui lui est accordée. Toutes choses égales par ailleurs, c’est-à-dire à capacités réseaux constantes, on tend donc vers une situation de congestion, vers une pénurie de bande passante.

Certes, les capacités réseaux continuent d’être améliorées, grâce à de nouvelles technologies (merci l’ADSL), ou grâce aux investissements des opérateurs de réseaux (poses de nouvelles fibres optiques sur et entre les différents backbones). Pourtant, les technologies comme l’ADSL ne font qu’améliorer la situation des consommateurs finaux, ce qui au passage dégrade la situation des opérateurs (si chaque consommateur a un tuyau plus gros, il faut donc que les opérateurs accroissent leurs capacités en conséquence). On voit ainsi que la seule situation pour éviter une congestion des réseaux et une pénurie de bande passante est l’augmentation des capacités réseaux par les opérateurs

…ou la limitation de la consommation des utilisateurs finaux. En effet, poser de nouvelles fibres optiques, tirer de nouveaux câbles sous-marins, tout cela a un coût élevé. Avant d’en arriver à de tels investissements, n’importe quel opérateur cherchera en premier lieu à optimiser le trafic sur son réseau, de façon à ce que la bande passante réellement consommée ne l’oblige pas à de nouveaux investissements.

Contrôler et limiter le trafic avant d’investir dans de nouveaux réseaux

Cas pratique: entre le milieu et la fin des années 1990, la société Cybercâble, filiale de la Lyonnaise des eaux (devenue Noos entre temps, fusionné avec Numéricable il y a peu) a posé ce qu’elle considérait comme « beaucoup » de câbles. Une fois les travaux finis, l’entreprise ouvre une des premières offres « haut débit illimité » (entre 1997 et 1998). Cependant, victime de son succès, Cybercâble doit faire face à l’engorgement de son réseau, les utilisateurs utilisent leur connexion et leurs programmes consommateurs de bande passante en continu. Il est impossible de poser de nouveaux câbles, cela coûterait trop cher et prendrait trop de temps. Dans un premier temps, l’entreprise décide de diviser la bande passante (par deux, par 4…). Colère et manifestations (je me souviens d’une amusante manifestation devant les locaux en plein centre de Strasbourg) d’utilisateurs obligent la lyonnaise à trouver une autre solution.

Et quelle solution? Les quotas de bande passante! Votre bande passante reste conforme à la promesse (ex: 512kbits par seconde), mais vous êtes limités dans la consommation totale mensuelle (ex: 3Go de données envoyées et/ou reçues). Attention aux étourdis, qui, ne surveillant pas leur consommation, se sont retrouvés avec des factures allant jusqu’à plusieurs milliers de francs. En effet, une fois le quota atteint, soit l’opérateur coupe… soit il compte le dépassement et vous envoie la facture.

Souvenirs d’une époque qu’on aimerait révolue dans cet article des archives de transfert.net (mai 2001)… mais dont on voit régulièrement des résurgences. Il suffit de regarder les offres de certains opérateurs, comme Noos Numéricable; qui a rétablit ses chers quotas en juin 2005 (voir l’article de 01net). Pour le moment, les quotas de bande passante (ascendante et/ou descendante) ne sont pas très courants en France, à croire que l’épisode de Cybercâble a refroidi bien des esprits. Cependant, dans d’autres pays (USA, Canada), ou dans d’autres contextes, les quotas de bande passante sont considérés très sérieusement.

Autre solution pour contrôler et limiter la consommation des utilisateurs: arrêter de considérer le net comme un réseau neutre, c’est-à-dire privilégier certains acteurs au détriment d’autres. Actuellement, les opérateurs laissent passer (relativement) librement et au même titre les paquets de données en provenance de mails d’utilisateurs, d’échanges P2P, ou d’éditeurs de contenus reconnus. Cependant, rien le les empêcheraient de privilégier les échanges de données offrant le meilleur rapport gain/coût. Une idée qui a déjà fait du chemin aux USA, comme le note jmplanche:

Sous la pression des opérateurs de télécoms américains, la chambre des représentants a voté à la majorité, un texte qui permettra (entre autre et au conditionnel) de facturer un droit de passage sur leurs réseaux, un peu à la tête du client :

En fonction du débit consommé (un peu trop de DailyMotion … paf les doigts)
En fonction des services utilisés (un peu trop de Google … pif la note !)

Nouveaux défis pour les éditeurs de services et de contenus

Dans un tel contexte, l’opérateur de réseaux a l’ascendant sur les éditeurs de contenus. Ces éditeurs de contenus, pour toucher les utilisateurs finaux, devront trouver des accords avec les opérateurs.

A moins de devenir eux-mêmes opérateurs de réseaux, comme… Google. Depuis quelques années, Google achète toutes les capacités réseaux excédentaires disponibles (fibre noire), sans pour autant acheter les réseaux eux-mêmes, car posséder tant de capacité réseaux leur ferait courir un risque de procès! Bon nombre d’analystes se demandent à quoi peuvent (ou pourront) servir toutes ces capacités réseaux, de même que les centres serveurs que Google construit, surtout aux Etats-Unis (le dernier à avoir été annoncé sera implanté en Caroline du Nord). Pour Robert Cringley, l’explication est limpide: Google veut devenir VOTRE internet. Derrière ce titre facile et provocateur se cache une analyse très pertinente, qui permettrait à un éditeur de services reconnu, disposant d’une base d’utilisateurs immense et fidèle, de devenir opérateur de réseaux et point de contact principal entre les consommateurs et le net:

It is becoming very obvious what will happen over the next two to three years. More and more of us will be downloading movies and television shows over the net and with that our usage patterns will change. Instead of using 1-3 gigabytes per month, as most broadband Internet users have in recent years, we’ll go to 1-3 gigabytes per DAY — a 30X increase that will place a huge backbone burden on ISPs. Those ISPs will be faced with the option of increasing their backbone connections by 30X, which would kill all profits, OR they could accept a peering arrangement with the local Google data center.

Au passage, cela cadre très bien avec la mission de Google: « Google a pour mission d’organiser à l’échelle mondiale les informations dans le but de les rendre accessibles et utiles à tous. »

Se rapprocher de la plus précieuse des ressources: les utilisateurs finaux

Un tel plan peut paraître tordu, je le trouve au contraire particulièrement bien vu. Les risques de congestion des réseaux vont croître dans un futur assez proche (à moins que les utilisateurs diminuent drastiquement leurs usages haut débit… rien que de l’écrire, ça me fait sourire). Dès lors, la pression sur les coûts des opérateurs sera critique. Pour maintenir leurs profits, les seules solutions à court terme seront de mettre en place de quotas ou des accords de distribution privilégiés, ce qui placera les éditeurs de services dans une position difficile, car ils ne seront plus en position de faire peser leurs services dans la négociation pour l’accès aux consommateurs.

Pour les éditeurs de services qui ont les moyens, négocier des accords de distribution deviendra une partie intégrante du modèle économique. Les plus gros évolueront comme Google, afin de se rapprocher des consommateurs, en intégrant la distribution à leurs activités; on assistera peut-être à une réelle fusion des contenus et des contenants, si chère à J6M lors de son passage chez Vivendi. Les petits éditeurs, les indépendants, les internautes, quant à eux, risquent d’être les grands perdants de cette « évolution »: trop petits, et trop atomisés, dans un nouvel espace qui imitera malheureusement les autres secteurs économiques plus classiques. On reverra peut-être fleurir les messages « Désolé, cet espace a dépassé son quota de trafic », pour cause de bande passante trop chère…

Alternative nécessaire: continuer à développer des réseaux

Espérons qu’avant d’en arriver là, des investissements conséquents en capacités réseaux soient réalisés, par des acteurs économiques privés et/ou publiques! Certains opérateurs, qui se sont spécialisés dans le négoce de bande passante, ainsi que ceux qui n’ont pas arrêté de poser des câbles avec l’explosion de la bulle auront eu le nez creux. En continuant d’accroître les capacités réseaux, on évitera peut-être le retour des quotas et l’apparition d’autres joyeusetés plus communes dans d’autres secteurs, comme la téléphonie mobile. Cela nous évitera peut-être la situation décrite dans EPIC 2014 (ou la mise à jour 2015), une animation prospective sur la concentration des acteurs du net et du web, réalisée en novembre 2004, qui se fait depuis allègrement dépasser par la réalité.

22 réponses à “bande passante: enjeux et gestion de la pénurie”

  1. athanagor Says:

    Mais qui êtes vous, cher ami ?
    Pour que tout le monde le sache enfin, je t’inclue dans cette chaine à ne pas briser (saches que d’habitude, ce genre de chaines, me les brise !!!) sinon, tu risques d’avoir une pénurie de commentaires sur ton blog !!! Ca serait embêtant, pas vrai ?

    Le but de cette bouse, c’est d’écrire un billet dans dont le thème est : « 5 choses que vous ne saviez probablement pas sur moi ».

    Je te lance donc ce défi, LE défi du moment, que pleins de blogs tentent de relever ! Une nouvelle forme de chaine, de virus ou de buzz… (barrez la mention inutile) ;o)

    En espérant avoir l’occasion de te revoir bientôt,
    ++

    PS : et pour que tu ne te défiles pas, j’ai bien dit à tout le monde que je te lançais la patate chaude !!! La preuve ici : http://true-duck.spaces.live.com/blog/cns!FAC2920F2B4B9D45!518.entry
    T’avais qu’à pas avoir de blog ! Na !

  2. kobaye.net Says:

    Google: nouvelles fonctionnalités pour nouveaux services?…

    En regardant les nouvelles fonctionnalités lancées par Google, on peut se demander à quels objectifs elles répondent: enrichir les services existants, ou préparer le terrain au lancement de nouveaux services, voire à de nouveaux usages de consomm…

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